The looming threat of unsubsidized products continues to haunt the Lebanese public, not solely because they are going to be lifted but rather because there is an absence of a proper safety net to replace the subsidization of certain basic necessities. Supermarket brawls and fuel shortages at gas stations have become frequent reminders of the apocalyptic-like reality that has dawned on the country, which is likely to get worse. With exception to the country’s top 1%, Lebanon has seen drastic changes in the way of life for most of its population, especially the middle class that has continued to shrink dramatically throughout the past year. While many look to emigration as a way of escape, most do not have the luxury and are forced to deal with the ramifications of the crisis.
In the past, middle-income citizens enjoyed a decent lifestyle that allowed them to send their kids to good schools as well as spend money for leisure, including the occasional vacation. No one had taken into account the fickle nature of the middle class and how strongly contingent it was on a bubble economic system that was eventually going to collapse. According to by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, the middle class contracted to 40% of the population by May 2020, a 17% drop from 2019. This only worsened in the aftermath of the August 4th explosion that saw many shops and small businesses close due to the cost of fixing damages. With reference to an article by , Patrick Saadeh, a 35-year-old father of three children was quoted saying “I am in the middle of a crisis, not a middle class.”
Unfortunately, the situation is getting worse as poverty is quickly rising against the backdrop of what was one of the country’s worst economic years, with GDP contracting by 20.3% and inflation reaching triple digits. This has had a serious effect on the middle and poor class who have struggled to get necessities like food or healthcare, prompting local neighborhood initiatives to distribute such essentials. The loss in value of the Lebanese lira coupled with strict banking measures has forced people to adopt new lifestyle changes because they can no longer afford to live as they did. This is evident through insane price hikes that have gradually increased over the past year with clothing and shoe prices increasing 560% and food and alcohol increasing 402%. With the continued fluctuations of the local currency, Lebanon’s monthly minimum wage has become one of the worst worldwide. Even retirees who rely on their pensions as a form of post-retirement income must deal with an extreme loss of value. , for example, who used to live on a combined pension of $6,000 a month now only make $600 between the both of them. At a time when senior citizens must enjoy the perks of retirement, they are forced to resort to immigration and settle abroad.
The narrative of “not having a future here” has held true long before the economic depression as brain drain was almost an innate feature of the country’s foundation. More often than not, the youth had to either pick between being unemployed or getting hired through the help of a political party that they in turn have to be indebted to. Therefore, people must look towards finding work abroad because a future in Lebanon is unsustainable. Now more than ever, people of all ages are leaving their homes and families just to ensure any decent form of living that is better than the minimal opportunities provided in Lebanon. “There will come a day when I will die before them. I will die with my mind at ease because they won’t be in this country”, exclaimed a man in an interview with Middle East Monitor. The structural reforms seem redundant when the system itself is flawed and needs to be changed from the ground up.
As of June 2020, it was estimated that the unemployment rate in the private sector had risen to around 30% of a 1.8 million person workforce, accounting for roughly around 550,000 unemployed people. This is going to be the likely trend for a while, as the private sector has been seeing negative unemployment growth since 2019, with only large exporting firms being the main survivors. This growth in unemployment is not only specific to the private sector, as a report by the United Nations ESCWA estimated, but half of the Lebanese workforce also operates in high-risk sectors. Meaning that there are large portions of the population that are susceptible to losing their jobs especially as the economic crisis continues to get worse. Such businesses include but are not limited to food service activities, manufacturing, and retail trade. . The current situation is only made worse by the continued presence of the COVID-19 pandemic which contributed to the closure of one-fifth of companies so far. Since June 2020, 8,000 small businesses have closed accompanied by an aggressive rise in unemployment.
It is important to note that the impact of the economic crisis on the middle class has extended towards other groups living in the country, especially the migrant domestic workers. Migrant domestic workers that reside in Lebanon already do not endure the rights that they deserve. They are subjected to incessant racism and constant acts of violence under the coercive Kafala sponsorship system which is nothing short of modern-day slavery. But amidst the current crisis, their already low standard of living has dropped significantly. Many migrant domestic workers are forced to live outside their embassies as their employers refuse to pay their salary or even provide a return ticket home. Many employers are even forcing the domestic workers to endure long hours all the while withholding pay and restricting movement or communication. Paying an average of $300 per month has become increasingly difficult for most households, but the aforementioned actions are evident cases of forced labour and human trafficking that cannot be tolerated.
As the currency continues to lose its value and the economic crisis worsens, only one factor remains constant: the current situation is a product of a corrupt and clientelist ruling class that has purposefully manufactured the current crises through years of incompetence and negligence. No one but them is to blame for the conception of our current state, and by all means, they should foster the blame for its continued perpetuation. Hariri and Aoun’s continued display of child-like behavior and political theatre over the inability to form a transitional government is only a minor example of how political insecurity is harbored by the state. Protesting and roadblocks is the language of a population that has for too long suffered under the same regime that disregarded its peoples’ struggles. While there may be various viable economic escape plans there is an absence of a willingness to implement them. As the powers who are meant to do the implementation, are seeking a plan that satisfies their desires.
For a while, the middle class enjoyed life under the facade of “economic stability” whereas the poor suffered for decades under systematic marginalization. But with the disappearance of the former, it is necessary to unite against the state apparatuses and institutions that have oppressed its people for too long.
